Rates Rise Again, Defence Land Sells & Markets Split | Axon Morning Brief

Video Transcript

Robbie: Okay, Caitlyn. I’m going to give you this microphone and get you to stand over here.

Caitlyn: Caitlyn, what?

Robbie: Oh, sorry, Ang. I thought you were Tam.

Ang: No worries. It happens to the best of us.

Ryan: Mate, it’s time to go to Specsavers.

Welcome Back to 2026

Robbie: Right, we are not live.

Ryan, how are you, mate?

Ryan: Good, mate. How are you?

Robbie: Welcome back to 2026.

I hope everyone had an excellent Christmas and New Year period.

You’ve already managed to sneak in a trip to Tasmania.

Ryan: Home away from home.

Christmas was hectic. We moved house and then held a pool party for my daughter’s sixth birthday.

Nothing creates a deadline for unpacking boxes like inviting everyone over for a pool party.

Then I snuck down to Tasmania.

It has been a belter of a start to the year, and that isn’t even work-related.

Robbie: You’ve rolled straight into 2026 saying, “Let’s go,” after a decent break.

What a start to the year it has been.

Welcome to the first Morning Brief of 2026.

Why We Produce the Morning Brief

Robbie: We were talking off camera about why we make these videos.

There is so much happening across the property industry.

We have well over 100 homes under construction at any one time, along with constant developments across land acquisition, finance and property.

We also have stories from the trenches and plenty happening within Axon.

The idea is that whether you are already working with us or only considering it, you might hear something today that later becomes relevant to your circumstances.

You may remember us discussing a particular issue and think, “That now applies to me.”

We have around 15 or 20 topics to cover.

As the saying goes, strap in.

Ryan: Just sit down and enjoy.

Robbie: Daniel loves it when I say things like that.

My wife will probably make him edit it out.

The last time we recorded one of these, we were wearing ridiculous Christmas shirts.

Ryan: We were.

Robbie: We received plenty of comments from people who enjoyed the shirts and liked seeing us have some fun at the end of the year.

Your shirt may have been the most popular.

We love it when people interact with the content, even when they’re enjoying us making idiots of ourselves.

New Content for 2026

Robbie: I spent part of the break thinking about the whole “new year, new goals” idea.

After several beers in the pool, I decided we should take our videos to another level.

Daniel sat down with me a couple of weeks ago, and we have already released a video with a completely different delivery and editing style.

It covers six things people should do in 2026, according to my own life and experiences.

I don’t know whether that will resonate with anyone, but I enjoyed making it.

The early feedback has been excellent, mainly because of the B-roll and voiceover.

Ryan: I only know the first point so far. I’m interested to hear the other five.

Robbie: Hopefully I can remember them.

The new content sets the tone for education, preparation and execution throughout the year.

We would genuinely like feedback on how the style is landing.

It is different from the conversational approach you are watching here.

If people tell us they prefer a particular style, topic or delivery, we will listen and produce more of it.

Construction Update

Robbie: Let’s begin with the homes that were under construction during the Christmas shutdown.

Clients can understandably become nervous when they have a half-built property sitting in Melbourne or South East Queensland during a period when storms, floods, fires or other events can occur.

How did everything go this year?

Ryan: Thankfully, across the 2025 to 2026 Christmas and New Year break, we had zero major incidents.

We received no reports of bushfires, flooding, break-ins or other serious events affecting our clients’ builds.

That was an excellent outcome.

Robbie: Many Australians experienced those things during the break, either through the news or firsthand.

That included crime.

Crime and Capital Growth

Robbie: We occasionally speak with people who say, “I don’t want to buy in an area with crime.”

Where exactly are you going to find an area with no crime?

We live in good Gold Coast suburbs, and people still try to break into homes and cars.

There are expensive suburbs across Sydney and other capital cities that experience crime, yet their property values continue increasing.

A lower crime rate does not automatically create stronger capital growth.

Ryan: That doesn’t mean we would deliberately purchase in a highly dangerous location.

However, crime statistics alone shouldn’t be treated as the deciding factor for capital growth.

Strong Enquiry and Consumer Confidence

Robbie: One thing we returned to after the break was an extremely high level of enquiry.

We had emails, connection calls and website enquiries waiting for us.

Even the office desk phone was ringing.

Ryan: The desk phone is on my desk now.

Robbie: We have one traditional desk phone in the entire office.

It still amazes me when someone decides to make an enquiry by calling a landline rather than pressing a button online.

But we love it.

Ryan: It feels like it rings at least once every working day now.

Robbie: People also sometimes call because they think we are the DHOAS website or Defence Housing Australia.

Eventually, they realise we’re neither, and we begin a conversation about what they actually need.

Long story short, anyone wanting to speak directly with Ryan should call the office.

It is encouraging to see so many people wanting to enter the property market or expand an existing portfolio.

Ryan: It comes back to consumer confidence, which we often describe as the eighth ingredient.

We regularly discuss the Seven Ingredients to a Healthy Property Market.

Consumer confidence sits around those fundamentals.

Despite the noise in the media and uncertainty around rates and future property movements, ADF members continue showing confidence in Australian property.

Borrowing Capacity Versus Serviceability

Robbie: We’ll discuss finance in more detail shortly.

One important distinction is the difference between how much a lender says you can borrow and whether you can comfortably service that debt over a long period.

Those concepts are connected, but they are not the same.

The sooner we have that conversation and manage expectations around a first or next property, the better.

Team Changes at Axon HQ

Robbie: We have also had a few team updates.

The wonderful Caitlyn recently decided to move on after around three and a half years with Axon.

Another opportunity became available, so we held a great farewell and wished her well.

It is part of the normal evolution of life and careers.

Your wife, Amanda, also worked here for nearly a year after leaving Defence.

It was a soft landing after a long military career, and she eventually moved into something different.

Ryan: She loved her time here.

Robbie: Caitlyn left on excellent terms.

The remaining Build Support team has contacted her clients and explained who will now support their builds.

We also sent emails and published updates, so affected clients should already know what has changed.

Anyone with questions can contact the office and speak with the team.

When we learned Caitlyn was leaving, Tamara, Angie and I immediately began recruiting.

We received around 185 applications.

I have read none of them because I am apparently not allowed to perform human resources duties.

Ryan: You are not the HR department.

Robbie: Beautiful. That means I don’t need to recruit anyone.

The executive team reviewed the applications, and several high-quality candidates reached the later interview stages.

We will announce the outcome soon.

Kiana and Blake also joined us towards the end of last year and are doing excellent work in their respective roles.

Blake now has a nickname.

Ryan: What is it?

Robbie: Kiana came up with “Balake”.

Ryan: Are you out of your goddamn mind, Balake?

Robbie: Blake is now Balake.

We haven’t found Kiana’s nickname yet, but it will come.

Quarterly Performance Data

Robbie: Another familiar activity for long-term followers is our quarterly planning session.

We review what happened throughout October, November and December.

We examine trends, data and performance metrics so we can plan the current quarter.

You also recently reached your three-year anniversary at Axon.

Ryan: It has gone quickly.

Robbie: I’m extremely happy you are here.

I remember speaking with Amanda on the Sunshine Coast and saying, “I think I should talk to Ryan about joining Axon.”

Ryan: She said, “If you hire him, I’m leaving.”

Robbie: Both things happened.

I’m proud to have you here, mate.

What quarterly statistics caught your attention?

Current Build Timeframes

Ryan: Two of the most common questions we receive during planning are:

“How long will my home take to build?”

And:

“How long will it take to find a tenant?”

Reviewing the quarterly data helps us answer those questions with current information.

Across the areas where we are operating, including Melbourne and South East Queensland, the average construction timeframe is approximately 26 weeks.

That is an excellent result.

Robbie: To clarify, that is the construction period, not the time required to find a tenant.

Ryan: Correct.

A 26-week build is particularly strong when compared with the delays experienced during and after COVID.

Some parts of Australia, including Western Australia, have experienced far longer construction periods.

How Long Does It Take to Find a Tenant?

Ryan: The time required to secure a tenant varies between markets and individual properties.

At the moment, the range is approximately four days to four weeks.

Robbie: It can vary even within the same estate.

We recently had two similar properties only a couple of streets apart.

One secured a tenant in four days.

The other took four weeks.

It can be difficult to predict.

When budgeting, plan around the longer timeframe.

If the tenant is found earlier, that is a positive outcome.

If it takes longer, we can work with the property manager and consider strategies to address it.

The four-day to four-week range isn’t ideal from a forecasting perspective, but it gives clients a realistic left and right of arc.

Builder Stability

Robbie: I recently coached an excellent couple, Jeff and Amanda.

I served with Jeff in the Army and spent some time with him in Kandahar.

That is the end of the war story.

Amanda raised a concern she regularly hears in the news.

She said, “Builders are always collapsing. How do we know that won’t happen to us?”

She was right that several builders failed during the post-COVID period.

The industry faced material shortages, trade shortages, supply delays and major price increases.

A builder may have signed a fixed-price contract, then experienced two years of delays and discovered that completing the home would create a $100,000 loss.

A company can only absorb so many losses before it stops existing.

I explained that those industry conditions have changed.

Profitability, stability and longer-term viability have returned to much of the construction sector.

Axon carefully selected its builders, and none of those partners collapsed during the most difficult period.

Today, we work with around seven or eight builders across our two primary markets.

We are not seeing warning signs of serious financial distress among them.

That removes one of the largest risks in the construction process, which is a builder failing halfway through the build.

Amanda understood the explanation and said, “Great. That is one less thing I need to worry about.”

That is the value of years of direct experience in the market.

The Latest Interest Rate Movement

Robbie: We’re recording this only a few days after the latest interest rate change.

Rates followed a particular trajectory during the last couple of years, and for the first time in a while, they have increased slightly.

The increase was 0.25 percentage points.

What are your key takeaways?

Ryan: People are understandably sensitive to interest rates.

We all have mortgages, and the movement is particularly relevant to property investors.

The increase may be an early signal that the easing cycle has ended.

During 2025, there were several rate reductions as the Reserve Bank attempted to manage inflation.

A small movement back upwards may indicate that the cycle of reductions is complete and that rates are returning towards a longer-term range.

Inflation remains slightly above the preferred two to three per cent range, so another increase may still be possible.

Robbie: Any long-term trend contains short-term fluctuations.

Think back to the line of best fit from school mathematics.

A market doesn’t travel in a perfectly straight line.

You only know the market has reached the bottom when it stops falling and begins moving upwards again.

Likewise, you only recognise the top after it begins declining.

Your point is correct.

We may now be entering a longer period of relative stability.

People should expect their borrowing and cash flow circumstances to remain reasonably similar unless another major disruption occurs.

How Rate Changes Affect Borrowing Power

Ryan: A question I regularly receive is, “How much less can I borrow after a rate increase?”

The answer depends on the household’s circumstances.

However, as a broad guide, every 0.25 percentage point movement in the cash rate may change borrowing capacity by approximately $17,000 to $20,000.

Lenders also adjust other parts of their assessment, including the Household Expenditure Measure, so the exact result varies.

Whether $20,000 is significant depends on the buyer.

If someone is so close to their maximum that a $20,000 change determines whether the purchase is possible, they may already be sailing too close to the wind.

Robbie: Whether you can borrow $625,000 or $650,000 shouldn’t necessarily become the sole deciding factor in your strategy.

The Four Cs of Lending

Robbie: Lending is often explained through the Four Cs.

The first is capital or collateral, which includes the deposit and purchasing costs.

The second is credit, including your credit history and current rating.

The third is conditions, including your age, employment and spending habits.

The fourth is capacity.

A mortgage broker can provide a borrowing-capacity report or pre-approval.

The bank enters your income, expenses and liabilities into its assessment system and determines whether you meet its lending requirements.

That provides an estimated borrowing amount.

When combined with your available deposit and costs, it establishes a possible property price point.

That price point influences the location, property type and size you can consider.

However, there is another part of capacity.

You must be able to borrow the money and then comfortably service the debt.

The True Cost of Purchasing Your Own Home

Robbie: Let’s focus on owner-occupied property.

A serving member may currently live in a service residence, receive Rent Allowance or use single living accommodation.

They may want to purchase their own home and use DHOAS.

DHOAS can be valuable in the right circumstances, and I helped you use it when you were my client.

However, what does purchasing the home mean for the weekly or monthly household budget?

What is the average current cost of a service residence?

Ryan: Somewhere between approximately $350 and $400 per week.

Robbie: Now consider a $700,000 owner-occupier loan.

DHOAS requires principal and interest repayments, and the subsidy is generally paid as an additional amount against the loan.

The actual mortgage repayment could be close to $1,000 per week.

Let that sink in.

A family may move from paying around $350 per week to nearly $1,000.

They may be excited about receiving the DHOAS subsidy, but they could also be paying an additional $600 or $700 every week to own that home.

That could represent approximately $35,000 more each year.

Yes, they are paying off their own asset.

However, if they intend to move soon and convert the home into an investment property, the financial strategy may not stack up.

Ryan: We describe that reaction as bill shock.

Clients often come to us deciding between an owner-occupied home and an investment property.

They are excited and say, “Rent money is dead money. I’m sick of DHA, and I want my own home.”

Then we place the real mortgage repayment into their plan.

A $700,000 or $800,000 loan is common for an owner-occupied home in many locations.

When we compare the weekly mortgage cost with the subsidised Defence housing cost, people’s jaws drop.

They ask, “Why would I want to do that?”

The Value of Subsidised Defence Housing

Robbie: A lot of people focus on how much HPAS or DHOAS they may receive.

They are eager to access the entitlements available to them.

However, one of the most valuable entitlements is subsidised housing itself.

The difference between the cost of a service residence and the market cost of equivalent accommodation can be enormous.

We have several successful clients who own three, four or five investment properties.

They have one major thing in common.

They have never lived in a home they owned.

They used subsidised Defence housing while building an investment portfolio.

Later, they can restructure and purchase their own home.

Ryan: That approach allows them to continue leveraging and accumulating assets before committing to the higher cost of an owner-occupied mortgage.

Once they reach the right stage, they can restructure, use DHOAS and purchase their own home.

Robbie: We aren’t trying to frighten anyone away from home ownership.

We want to manage expectations and identify the right time to use those entitlements.

HPAS and DHOAS must fit within the rest of your life and financial strategy.

They shouldn’t be pursued in isolation because they look attractive.

Our role is to provide clarity and map everything out so clients don’t back themselves into a corner and later ask, “Why did we do that?”

Proposed Defence Land Sales

Robbie: A client recently sent us a Defence-related message suggesting that land may be sold.

By the time I arrived home, the story was appearing across the news.

It included Victoria Barracks in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, along with several other historic Defence sites.

Many of these older sites are expensive to maintain and contribute limited operational capability.

The proposal is to sell or redevelop some of that land and redirect the funds towards Defence priorities.

Ryan: Queensland has referred to part of this activity as the Land Activation Program.

The program examines infill land that may be sold to developers.

One interesting point is that the program is often discussed in the context of addressing the housing crisis.

However, there doesn’t necessarily appear to be a requirement that the new housing must be affordable.

Robbie: Much of this is premium land near major capital cities and infrastructure.

Development on that land is unlikely to be cheap.

Defence may receive around $1.3 billion from the broader disposal process to support national defence priorities.

It is effectively a form of consolidation, similar to a property owner selling an asset to solve another financial requirement.

The sales may create more land for development, infrastructure or housing.

However, that doesn’t mean an affordable master-planned community will suddenly be constructed beside Oxford Street in Sydney.

This is the first time we have seen a process of this scale, and it reflects the pressure on available land, particularly in South East Queensland.

For existing clients who already own property near some of these locations, additional development and demand may support their assets.

Brisbane and Melbourne Forecasts

Robbie: KPMG released property forecasts for two markets we are currently focused on, Melbourne and Brisbane.

What did the figures show?

Ryan: The forecast quoted for Melbourne suggested approximately 6.8 per cent house-price growth during 2026.

That is a positive projection.

Entry-level new property in Melbourne’s growth areas may currently sit in the mid to high $600,000 range, which remains achievable for many clients.

Melbourne has historically been a slower-moving but relatively stable long-term market.

Brisbane was forecast to continue performing strongly, with projected growth of approximately 11 per cent.

Robbie: People may hear those numbers and ask, “Why would I invest in Melbourne if Brisbane is forecast to grow almost twice as quickly?”

The catch is entry price.

A comparable property in Brisbane may have an eight or nine at the front of the price.

Intent is not enough.

The numbers must work.

Brisbane may outperform Melbourne over the next few years while Melbourne builds momentum.

However, timing and affordability matter.

The Importance of Patience

Robbie: Think back to the Ripley and Springfield growth corridor in western Brisbane.

When we first helped clients purchase there, homes cost around $440,000 to $520,000.

For roughly three years, values barely moved because the area needed time for infrastructure, services and population growth to arrive.

Seven, eight or nine years later, many of those properties may be worth $800,000 or $900,000.

Some clients probably became frustrated after three years and sold because they believed nothing was happening.

Those homes may have since doubled in value.

I’m not happy that they missed the result, but it demonstrates the importance of patience.

The reasons you selected the location still matter.

Unless life forces a change, you need to maintain belief in the strategy and hold through multiple property cycles.

That is where much of the real growth occurs.

Tactical Location Selection

Robbie: I wrote this down because I don’t want to get it wrong.

This is why our strategy focuses on brand-new land-and-build property and tactical location selection.

A forecast may say Melbourne will grow by six or eight per cent.

But where in Melbourne?

Growth corridor A, B and C will not perform identically.

They have different infrastructure, employment, population forecasts and demand drivers.

The tactical suburb and corridor selection sits underneath the wider umbrella of the global city.

The financial structure matters more than a broad national or citywide average.

If a broker confirms that a client’s maximum suitable price is approximately $700,000, there is little value in analysing South East Queensland properties priced well beyond that amount.

The range card says no.

The financial structure and strategy must flow into the correct property selection.

Portfolio Restructures

Robbie: Axon will turn nine years old in another few weeks.

We have now passed 600 properties delivered for clients.

Some have since been sold, but that number reflects what we helped clients acquire or build.

As life evolves, clients regularly restructure their portfolios.

A client may sell one or two properties to resolve a problem, improve their circumstances or achieve another goal.

There is nothing wrong with that.

Ryan: During my three years here, I have repeatedly seen clients sell or restructure a property to address something important.

In many cases, they are hundreds of thousands of dollars better off because they took the opportunity to invest several years earlier.

After solving the immediate issue, they may return to the accumulation phase and invest again.

Property gives people options they might not otherwise have.

Your Investment Window

Robbie: It is important to recognise that the opportunity to invest becomes more difficult once you permanently leave the workforce.

Someone relying entirely on a pension may have fewer lending options unless they have already built significant wealth.

However, taking a temporary break from investing doesn’t mean the opportunity has disappeared forever.

You might decide to begin a family and lose the dual-income, no-children advantage for 15 years.

That is fine.

You prioritised your family.

The property market will still be there when your circumstances improve.

You may also sell properties to achieve something important and return later.

This isn’t a one-shot opportunity where somebody says, “You missed your chance. See you later.”

Office Visitors and Client Meetups

Robbie: Let’s finish with some stories from the trenches.

You love having clients visit Axon HQ.

Ryan: We had a flurry of visitors before Christmas and again at the beginning of this year.

Several couples brought their babies, and one brought a dog.

The team loved that, although very little work was completed that day.

Another couple visited before travelling to Mount Tamborine for lunch.

A few days later, we saw on Instagram that they had become engaged.

Robbie: Why didn’t they get engaged here?

Ryan: We would have loved that.

We welcome clients visiting the office.

Anyone travelling through the Gold Coast or Brisbane is welcome to arrange a visit.

One couple I coach recently posted to Enoggera.

They travelled to the Gold Coast, met the team and completed an impromptu planning session in one of the coaching pods.

That session created a pathway towards their second investment property.

Robbie: Meeting people face to face is excellent.

The dates for our first-half client meetups in Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne are already in our calendars.

We will announce them shortly.

When the dates are published, do your best to attend and say hello.

The Milky Bars are on us.

Client Story: From First Property to Dream Home

Robbie: I want to finish with one of the most heartwarming client stories.

A woman first reached out to us around 2018, only a year after Axon began.

She was probably among our first 10 clients.

She couldn’t qualify for the property by herself, so she needed to involve her new boyfriend.

Their relationship was still relatively young at the time.

Over the following years, the relationship matured.

They married and built three investment properties with us.

They are both now preparing to leave the military and work in the Defence industry in the United Arab Emirates.

They expect to earn strong incomes overseas.

However, they don’t want to lose the momentum they have created.

They also want to establish a long-term home base in Australia.

We have worked with their accountant, financial planner and mortgage broker to create a strategy.

They plan to sell two of their investment properties.

Those properties may release around $900,000.

They will use part of that money to place a substantial deposit on an excellent block of land where they eventually intend to build their principal home.

They can hold the land while working in the UAE, then return to Australia and construct their dream home.

It is a substantial portfolio restructure.

The positive outcome is that they can retain one investment property rather than selling all three.

Their circumstances and financial growth made that possible.

It has been incredibly rewarding to be involved in their lives.

They sometimes say, “We remember meeting you all those years ago.”

They exaggerate and make it sound like 12 or 13 years, but it hasn’t been quite that long.

Their experience demonstrates how genuine relationships develop over time.

At first, a client may think their coach is trying to become their mate too quickly.

Six years later, we are celebrating what they have achieved together.

It is a story for the ages.

I can’t wait to help them select the land and eventually build their dream home, probably somewhere in Victoria near family.

They can then return from overseas, start their own family and be surrounded by support.

G and J, you know who you are.

I’ll be sending you this video because this is your story.

Final Thoughts

Robbie: It has already been a big year.

Ryan: We’re only five weeks into February.

Robbie: We’re moving quickly.

Consumer confidence and sentiment remain high, and many people are reaching out.

We’re ready.

Between Damo, me and several other team members, Axon will be in Melbourne four times during the first six months of the year.

We are putting boots on the ground, meeting stakeholders and supporting the primary market currently matching many clients’ entry-level budgets.

We are still building homes in selected parts of South East Queensland for clients with the borrowing capacity to purchase there.

Someone who has lived in Canberra or Sydney for 10 years may consider a $900,000 South East Queensland property affordable.

The correct market depends on the individual.

Your strategy, financial structure and ongoing education are not optional extras.

They are vital.

Keep learning and continue watching the stories from the trenches.

There were probably several points in this episode that you had never previously considered.

Those lessons may now become important parts of your mindset and future planning.

None of us has a crystal ball, and we don’t know exactly what the rest of the year will bring.

However, I am excited about the outcomes we can create for clients, the way the business will continue evolving and the new people who will become part of the Axon family.

Thanks for joining us.

Ryan: Thanks, mate.

Robbie: See you soon, everyone. Have a great day.